Move: How Mass Migration Will Reshape the World – and What It Means for You
„Move: How Mass Migration Will Reshape the World – and What It Means for You“ ist ein Buch, das sich mit dem unaufhaltsamen Trend der Migration auseinandersetzt und die Auswirkungen auf die Weltwirtschaft, die politische Landschaft und die kulturelle Identität untersucht. Der Autor Parag Khanna argumentiert, dass die Migration in Zukunft weiterhin die Welt verändern wird und dass sie sowohl positive als auch negative Auswirkungen haben wird. Positiv gesehen führt Migration zu einem größeren Wohlstand und Wachstum, aber es ist wichtig, dass Migranten in die Gesellschaften, in die sie sich bewegen, integriert werden, um Konflikte zu vermeiden und die positiven Auswirkungen zu maximieren. Kulturelle Vielfalt ist eine Stärke, da sie Innovation und Kreativität fördert. Die politischen Auswirkungen der Migration sind komplex und können sowohl zu Spannungen als auch zu einer größeren Zusammenarbeit führen. Migration von Arbeitskräften kann dazu beitragen, Engpässe auf dem Arbeitsmarkt zu beheben und wirtschaftliches Wachstum zu fördern. Migration von Flüchtlingen ist eine moralische Verpflichtung und sollte von der internationalen Gemeinschaft unterstützt werden. Eine faire und transparente Einwanderungspolitik ist wichtig, um Diskriminierung und Ausbeutung zu vermeiden. Die Kombination von Migration und Technologie kann dazu beitragen, globale Herausforderungen wie den Klimawandel und die Armut zu bewältigen. Insgesamt fordert das Buch eine bessere Verständnis der komplexen Natur der Migration und wie wir uns als globale Gemeinschaft darauf einstellen können.
- Migration ist ein unaufhaltsamer Trend, der weiterhin die Welt verändern wird.
- Die Auswirkungen der Migration auf die Weltwirtschaft sind sowohl positiv als auch negativ, aber im Allgemeinen führen sie zu einem größeren Wohlstand und Wachstum.
- Die Integration von Migranten in die Gesellschaften, in die sie sich bewegen, ist von entscheidender Bedeutung, um Konflikte zu vermeiden und die positiven Auswirkungen der Migration zu maximieren.
- Die kulturelle Vielfalt, die durch Migration entsteht, ist eine Stärke und keine Schwäche, da sie Innovation und Kreativität fördert.
- Die politischen Auswirkungen der Migration sind komplex und können sowohl zu Spannungen als auch zu einer größeren Zusammenarbeit führen.
- Die Migration von Arbeitskräften kann dazu beitragen, Engpässe auf dem Arbeitsmarkt zu beheben und wirtschaftliches Wachstum zu fördern.
- Die Migration von Flüchtlingen ist eine moralische Verpflichtung und sollte von der internationalen Gemeinschaft unterstützt werden.
- Die Einwanderungspolitik sollte auf einer fairen und transparenten Basis erfolgen, um Diskriminierung und Ausbeutung zu vermeiden.
- Die Kombination von Migration und Technologie kann dazu beitragen, globale Herausforderungen wie den Klimawandel und die Armut zu bewältigen.
- Wir alle sind von der Migration betroffen und sollten uns bemühen, ein besseres Verständnis für die komplexe Natur dieses Phänomens zu entwickeln.
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“WHERE WILL YOU LIVE IN 2050?”
Excerpt From „Move“ by Parag Khanna
“To forecast which places will succeed or fail in the decades ahead requires taking a holistic look at political, economic, technological, social, and environmental factors, projecting how they intersect with one another, and building scenarios for how each geography may adapt to this unending complexity. Plenty of twists and turns lie ahead: lockdowns today, mass migrations tomorrow; populist democracy today, data-driven governance tomorrow; national identity today, global solidarity tomorrow—or the reverse in some places, and flip-flopping in others. You may not know if you’ve made the right move—or moves—until 2050.”
“Children of the twentieth century know the adages “Geography is destiny” and “Demography is destiny.” The former implies that location and resources determine our fate, while the latter suggests that population size and age structure are the most important factors”
“Connectivity is destiny.”
Mobility is destiny.
“The management guru Peter Drucker warned that “the greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence itself but to act with yesterday’s logic.”
“To paraphrase Lenin: You may not be interested in migration, but migration is interested in you.”
“Arguably the greatest migration in human history has been unfolding for decades just due to urbanization within countries. In 1960, only 1 billion people lived in cities; today that figure stands at more than 5 billion.”
“Unfortunately, humans have a much more difficult time moving across borders than money does. Countries have been open to the (relatively) free movement of goods and capital—but people, not as much.”
“The UK’s 2016 Brexit decision pushed business and investment away from the country, with British talent taking their skills and money to Canada, Portugal, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, and a half-dozen other countries. But Britain has an educated population, a large economy, ample freshwater, and will fare far better than most places as climate change accelerates. So those that Brexit pushed away may eventually return despite Brexit—along with a new wave of migrants recruited by a wiser government.”
“Instead, the complexity of today’s world makes it increasingly difficult to settle permanently anywhere.”
“As Paul Salopek wrote in National Geographic in 2019, “More than a billion refugees and migrants are on the move today, both within countries and across borders, fleeing mass violence and poverty. This is the largest tide of rootlessness in human history.”
“In the upper left, “Regional Fortresses” most closely resembles today’s status quo. Clean energy investments are ramping up, but migration is limited. The rich countries of the North are far more focused on their own climate resilience than supporting deprived regions.”
“Only one scenario, “Northern Lights,” involves advanced planning for large-scale human resettlement and environmental regeneration. Economies move rapidly toward carbon-neutral energy, vast tracts of transnationally financed and governed zones (mostly in the northern hemisphere) absorb billions of migrants, and large investments are also devoted to rehabilitating the southern hemisphere. The world achieves both resource efficiency as well as managed cultural assimilation. No movie has yet been made about this scenario. We will have to write the script.”
“Today, however, the outlook is different. We can now foresee with confidence that the world population may peak as soon as 2045 and perhaps never reach 9 billion. How could we have miscalculated so badly? The answer is that we were wrong because we were right: Warnings about the economic and ecological perils of overpopulation are what prompted poor countries with high fertility to take measures to curb their breakneck population growth. Were it not for this feedback loop, world population may already have crossed 10 billion.”
“In addition to longevity and money, there are ethical dilemmas. Even millennials who could afford to have more children tend to subscribe to postmaterialist values—the most significant of which is a focus on the climate. Gen-Z carries a self-conscious guilt about how to cope with the fragility of the planet: They’re far more concerned with civilizational survival than with having children.”
“Environmentally conscious millennials and Gen-Z take many steps to reduce their carbon footprint, but the biggest emissions reduction by far would come from bringing one less child onto the planet.”
“But this time is different. Right now, millennials (born 1981–1996) and Gen-Z (born 1997–2014) represent 64 percent of all human beings. But these youth aren’t producing a larger batch of offspring: Gen Alpha (born 2015 onward) may not be as large as Gen-Z. As a result, today’s younger generations constitute most of tomorrow’s population as well. In other words, they are both the present and the future. By 2050 they’ll be thirty-somethings to sixty-somethings who still represent most of the total global population because today’s elderly will have died off and few children will have been born. When Jack Ma and Elon Musk shared the stage in August 2019, they couldn’t agree on the future of AI, but they resoundingly agreed that the greatest challenge of the next twenty years is global population collapse.”
“Given America’s low fertility and rapid aging, immigration is the only reason the population is growing at all.
We don’t have to wait until 2040 to witness peak humanity. Much of the world feels that way already. North America, Europe, and Northeast Asia—the three richest zones of the world—have sub-replacement fertility levels.”
“From Ireland to Slovenia and Finland to Italy, almost every European nation faces the untenable combination of rising spending on pensions and elder care and a shrinking workforce.”
“Make no mistake: Immigration is an economic stimulus.”
“It’s also a mistake to believe that innovation-driven economies need only highly skilled migrants. In fact, from construction and manufacturing to farming and nursing, entire industries would grind to a halt without low-skilled immigrants, while rising prices for many goods and services would drive inflation upward.”
“Are we a country facing extinction? Unfortunately, yes. A country that doesn’t create children is destined to die.”
“Between low fertility and emigration, no region of the world is shrinking more rapidly than Eastern Europe. Since Romania joined the EU in 2007, an estimated one-quarter of the country’s population (about 5 million people) have headed west and never returned.”
“Nearly 40 percent of America’s scientists, one-third of its doctors and surgeons, half of Silicon Valley’s tech company founders, and more than two-thirds of its tech employees, are foreign-born, mostly from China and India.”
“This is a reminder that the new nationalists (especially in the West) cater largely to an older generation, with one foot in the grave—and will follow them into it. They represent the last hurrah of a white overclass that managed to masquerade its identity politics as the national interest.”
“Just as important is the fact that today’s young populations hold demonstrably pro-globalist attitudes. In a survey covering twenty Western nations, an overwhelming 77 percent of respondents aged eighteen to twenty-four felt that “globalization is a force for good” versus only 11 percent taking a negative view”
“Even if they wanted to, much of the American public isn’t fit to fight. Seventy-one percent of Americans are ineligible for military duty due to health issues (such as obesity), criminal records, or insufficient education. A series of US Army reports from the 2010s carried ominous titles such as Too Fat to Fight—followed by Still Too Fat to Fight—warning (repeatedly, it seems) of the threat obesity poses to American national security. (You can’t make this stuff up.) If time spent on social media and gaming constitutes preparation for a career in cyber warfare, however, then the army of the future has plenty of recruits to tap.”
“I can’t wait for the boomers to die so that we can afford a place to live.” But baby boomer mortality is only predicted to accelerate in the 2030s.”
“Aging countries’ pension funds will go broke unless they invest their assets in the places where their own youth are going—wherever that may be.”
“Or could it be that millennials and Gen-Z will eventually become conservative adults as was the case with many of America’s Woodstock and Europe’s ’68 generation? That would require them attaining some stability to cling on to. ”
„Most of today’s youth are still physically sitting on the sidelines, a silent majority occupied with prosaic concerns such as finishing school and looking for work. The longer they have to wait for change, the more likely it becomes that they’ll move in search of communities where protesting is not a full-time job, and where people share their understanding of identity and priorities.”
“If there is one nearly universal community of believers, it’s football. Soccer has developed into a new kind of religion with many denominations, sects, and partisans. It’s a faith with loyal followers who spend time and money at its pilgrimage sites—Wembley, Old Trafford, Camp Nou—worshipping its deities such as Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. ”
“The answer to what people will do in the future very much depends on where they move to do it. This underscores the reality that our main challenge is not man versus robots but skills versus geography. Even as automation eliminates millions of jobs in retail, logistics, finance, law, and other areas, the demand for human talent to upgrade our infrastructure and social services remains enormous.”
“The average European country spends nearly 30 percent of GDP on social services, far higher than America’s 15 percent.”
“What Europeans are not accustomed to, however, is working in the gigonomy. As a result, like their American counterparts, most have either no savings or barely enough for three months of expenses”
“Unlike America or China, where corporations or the state control data, Europe is most progressive in personal data protection, allowing pro-citizen data marketplaces to thrive.”
“The Czech Republic is already one of the hottest relocation destinations in Europe, with foreigners making up 10 percent of the country’s workforce. The majority of new arrivals are Russians, Ukrainians, or Americans, who have cemented Prague’s status as a hot study-abroad hub. ”
“Portugal is with good reason one of the more popular destinations for Europeans and others seeking long-term stability. Climate change is expected to have less impact on its freshwater resources, which are abundant in the north around Porto and in the southern region of Algarve. Portugal’s socialist-leaning government has reversed its post-crisis economic decline, boosting public investment in trains and subways and raising wages. ”
“Europe faces a choice between assimilating migrants or falling off a demographic cliff. As in America, Europe needs unskilled migrants to fix infrastructure, collect trash, care for the elderly, help integrate other foreigners, and countless other functions. Europe depends on Polish plumbers, Romanian farmers, and African sanitation workers. Despite rising unemployment in the UK and a seventy-thousand-worker shortage picking crops, only one hundred Britons showed up in response to a government call to step into farming roles during the Covid lockdown. Societies that don’t accept the necessary number and range of migrants to plug their labor shortages wind up poorer.”
“While Germany’s overall fertility rate is low, Berlin boasts the highest birth rate of any city in Europe, evident in the continuous opening of new kitas (daycare centers) in the millennial-populated neighborhoods of East Berlin. The city’s population today has finally caught up to what it was one hundred years ago. While some politicians vocally resent not hearing German spoken on many streets, many residents have simply made English their common denominator. For Berlin youth, the half-English sentences of “Denglish” are German.”
“What is the threshold for being considered German, or at least German enough? Must “German” mean white, Christian, and Germanic? Or is it enough to enjoy football, cars, and sausages? Or something in between? It’s common to hear that too much immigration can be an affront to a country’s values, but far less common to hear a clear statement of what those values actually are.”
“Immersed in modern technology, humans have lost their ability to feel the planet.”
“For locations that are only seasonally viable, there can be pop-up cities.”
“Plan B” for billionaires
A chorus of philanthropists and celebrities have pledged their wealth to finance carbon capture, reforestation, alternative energy, and other climate interventions. At the same time, boomers and Gen-Xers with unlimited means have already begun preparing for the worst. Their “apocalypse insurance” includes buying up tracts of remote Hawaiian islands or vast ranches in Kansas with impenetrable bunkers, off-grid power, freshwater tanks, weapons caches, motorcycles, and helicopters. Switzerland’s private bunkers are not only impregnable fortresses but ensure digital resilience so you have access to your Bitcoin.”
“With a $2 phone coming into their hands and mobile payments spreading to every country, Africa has an opportunity to use mobility in all its forms as a springboard to reinvent itself.
It may seem obvious that the path forward for Africa’s development lies in manufacturing and trade, services and skills, urbanization and digitization. The bustle of Nairobi, Kenya’s capital, gives off this positive vibe. But most African youth don’t enjoy even that minimal level of entrepreneurial bustle. Does Africa need more people stuck in traffic jams, or selling Chinese toys and Nestlé chocolates?
The African Development Bank has a better idea: It wants to turn agricultural areas into major job-creating zones for more efficient food production, powered by renewable energy. Africa has almost half the world’s uncultivated arable farmland, and is the largest exporter of phosphate fertilizers, yet tens of millions face acute food shortages. Smart countries such as Ghana have launched programs to professionally train more farmers and get them better equipment. Rather than grow flowers for Europe, Africa should grow more food for itself.”
“Even worse, the capital, Buenos Aires, home to one-third of the population, has to worry about rising seas. Meanwhile, much of the rest of Argentina is receiving torrential rain—one year’s worth in two weeks—causing flooding so extreme that cattle must learn to swim. ”
“Australia’s future will depend much more on its geography than its history.”
“The CEOs of IBM, Google, Microsoft, Mastercard, Nokia, and Novartis are all Indian, as are the founders and executives of hundreds of other companies from Boston to Silicon Valley; it’s highly unlikely they could ever be Chinese.”
“By 2030 China’s nearly 1.5 billion people will be over sixty-five, meaning China will have as many elderly people as America has people. By that time (and beyond), a young Chinese person will face the “4-2-1” problem: being alone but financially responsible for two parents and four grandparents.”
“After witnessing how the US and much of Europe mishandled the coronavirus, Western expats in Asia have no plans to voluntarily return to their low-growth and populist homelands. During the pandemic, some Western expats lost their jobs and had to return home against their will, but at the same time, American and Australian applications for Thailand’s “Elite Residence” program surged because of the country’s low infection rate and affordable medical tourism offerings.”
“The Japanese government has favored locals with incentives to buy abandoned properties, but there aren’t nearly enough takers. So-called akiya banks dedicated to financing the purchase of vacant homes will soon expand their offerings to foreigners. Expats are already snapping up land for as little as $20,000 and fixing up traditional homes or building new condo-style compounds with a dozen or more units. They’re taking to the local customs of neighborhood sharing of everything from bamboo to beer. Japan, like China, is not going to become demographically diluted or evolve into a multiethnic melting pot, but its doors are open to more “new Japanese” than ever.”
“Of all the countries opening to mass migration, only Japan is also a living experiment in the coexistence of humans and all manner of technologies. Everywhere you look in Japan you see vacant buildings in immaculate condition, minimal traffic on roads, ferryboats sitting idle, and bridges connecting sparsely inhabited districts over calm waters. Today we fumble through communicating with the Japanese taxi driver who wears a suit and tie, white gloves, and”
“With the right skills, today’s young talent can move practically anywhere they want based on lower taxes; better public services; more affordable housing, education, and healthcare; more predictable politics; or other preferences. Ample websites such as Nomad List, Expatica, and Expatistan have cost-of-living calculators to help current and aspiring nomads arbitrage across hundreds of cities—and keep moving among them.”
“Hustling is life—and it’s not done standing still.”
“Estonia’s e-residency program offers business registration with EU access, and comes with a glossy ID card and sleek black USB key that decrypts your entry to the country’s online services—which is all services. So far the offering has attracted mostly other Europeans, but also entrepreneurs from as far as Brazil, who are using Estonia as a base to raise European capital for online learning platforms targeting Asia. In 2020, the country adopted a “digital nomad visa” allowing visitors to stay and work remotely for foreign companies, and it is developing a cloud-based pension system that mobile workers can pay into and collect anywhere. In a world of e-wallets and cryptocurrencies, today’s youth need not be tied to a single national financial system.”
“Rich retirees have already opted for mobility as a lifestyle choice. Some reside 250 days or more per year on cruise ships such as the Viking Sun, perpetually sailing around the world, docking in more than one hundred ports across fifty countries. One ship known as The World is owned by the 130 families who permanently reside on it, making it something of a micro mobile sovereign.”
“But after World War I, migration became so bureaucratized that passports are now one of the chief barriers to a more sensible human geography.”
“The most important passports of the future are skills and health rather than nationality.”
“Historically, citizenship has been granted by birth (ius solis) or descent (ius sanguinis), with naturalization by residency rising during recent generations of migration waves. To this we now add ius doni, meaning citizenship via investment. The idea is fiscally sensible. For poor Caribbean nations, like St. Kitts, St. Lucia, or Antigua, that have a small tax base and face high borrowing costs, attracting “sovereign equity”—selling a piece of themselves such as land—is preferable to taking on more debt. Ideally, they’ll use this investment from new migrants to finance better infrastructure and economic diversification, eventually building a more robust welfare system.”
“Nobody wants a trade-off between health and wealth.”
“No doubt public health will become a major priority in countries that failed the Covid test—much as after the Black Death European societies introduced sewers and paved roads. But why gamble with your life when life is no longer short? Indeed, today’s mobile class are looking for “blue zones” that combine preventive measures and pro-longevity interventions. Places such as Sardinia in Italy and Okinawa in Japan have earned the blue zone moniker for their combination of fresh environment, organic diet, regular exercise, and strong community bonds that have propelled locals to the longest lifespans of any place on Earth. Most of humanity would be better off with the blue zone diet of vegetables, grains, seeds, fruits, nuts, beans, and fish. Longer biological lifespans could elevate people’s desire to live in places free of arbitrary violence.”
“Comparing countries by their GDP versus their rank in the recently launched Social Progress Index (SPI) is startling. The US, for example, is wealthier per capita than all but a few small European tax havens. But given its poor healthcare, violence, and inequality, it ranks only twenty-sixth in the SPI. The top tier of SPI countries is made up not only of the usual suspects in northern Europe as well as Switzerland, Ireland, Australia, and New Zealand, but also large countries such as Germany, Japan, Canada, and France. ”
“A single one-acre building can generate almost two tons of produce daily using eighteen times less water than conventional agriculture and with a cooling system that recycles freshwater back to plant roots. In bustling cities, shipping containers are being repurposed into “food generators” with hydroponic equipment inside. China has broken ground on an entire city that aims to be both pandemic-proof and self-sufficient in food and energy. Mallorca is one of Spain’s highest-grossing tourist hubs and gentrifying rapidly, yet it’s running out of water. But Spain is also the home of companies such as Arpa and Genaq, which have developed some of the most advanced atmospheric water generators, already sold to dozens of militaries around the world. Mallorca could become a circular island.”
“Singapore’s founding father Lee Kuan Yew listed a number of the young nation’s well-known virtues, such as corruption-free politics and multiethnic harmony. But then he got really philosophical: “Air-conditioning was a most important invention for us, perhaps one of the signal inventions of history. It changed the nature of civilization by making development possible in the tropics.”
“For youth, the term “user experience” applies as much to cities as it does to companies. They demand that local governance leapfrog from decrepit infrastructure and shoddy services to sensors managing traffic and digital referenda gathering their views in real time. ”
“Smart city” now denotes everything from tele-medicine to pervasive surveillance. The technological dimension of smart city life is a mix of alluring and discomforting. Apartments are becoming configurable spaces where furniture folds itself up to fit the space depending on whether you need a couch, bed, kitchen, or office. IoT, 5G, and AR/VR will deliver fully immersive streets and buildings. Mobile delivery by drone or robot means instant convenience but potentially clogged sidewalks and skies. Trucks outfitted with 3D printers can mobile-manufacture repair parts. Pizza Hut is piloting vans with ovens inside that make fresh pizzas while en route to deliver them enforcement. There is also a strong push for digital authentication to prevent deep fakes and block cyber-clones, and to suppress hate speech and fact-check viral conspiracy theories. If there are going to be security cameras everywhere, then at least they could be used to stop the “porch pirates” who steal tens of millions of packages annually.”
“Just because you can build something doesn’t mean you should. Making existing cities more sustainable and investing in their residents’ mobility would be money better spent.”
“It’s more likely that over the course of one’s lifetime, many more people will move multiple times for multiple reasons in multiple directions: in search of work, fleeing climate change, seeking a better political system, or acting from some other motivation. The decades ahead will witness constant circulation as we attempt to rectify the grave mismatch among resources, borders, industries, and people.”
“Never before has there been so much human movement. And never before has there been so much organized resistance to human movement.”
“the North needs migrants more than ever anyway. The brain drain may as well continue”
“If we allow ourselves to go with the flow—moving inland, upland, and northward, and taking advantage of the latest advances in sustainability and mobility—we will not only evolve toward a new model of human civilization, but may even regain the confidence to revitalize our population. ”
All Excerpts From „Move“ Parag Khanna